A simple model for assessing climate control trade-offs and responding to unanticipated climate outcomes

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Persistent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions threaten global climate goals and have prompted consideration of controls supplementary to mitigation. We present MARGO, an idealized model optimally-controlled change, which is complementary both simpler conceptual models more complicated Integrated Assessment Models. The four methods controlling damage—mitigation, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, solar radiation modification (SRM)—are not interchangeable, as they enter at different stages the causal chain that connects GHG damages. Early aggressive mitigation necessary stabilize concentrations below a tolerable level. While most cost-beneficial cost-effective pathways reducing suffering include deployments all controls, quantitative trade-offs between are sensitive value-driven parameters poorly-known future costs Static policy optimization assumes perfect foresight obscures active role decision-makers in shaping trajectory. propose explicit response process wherein control policies re-adjusted over time unanticipated outcomes. illustrate this two ‘storyline’ scenarios: (a) near-term increases CDR deficient, such expected slip out reach; (b) SRM abruptly terminated after 40 years successful deployment, causing extremely rapid warming amplified by excess GHGs due deterred In cases, optimized yields substantial benefits relative continuing original policy. MARGO intentionally designed be simple, transparent, customizable, accessible possible, addressing concerns about previous climate-economic modelling approaches enabling diverse set stakeholders engage with these essential timely topics.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1748-9326']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac243e